Understanding U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent actions—such as sending “tariff letters” to countries including long-standing Asian allies like Japan and South Korea—requires delving into the profound internal changes in America and their impact on the global order. Some interpret Trump’s actions as mere pressure tactics against trade partners. Others argue it was never realistic for Washington to negotiate separate trade agreements with every country. Trump has repeatedly said he would unilaterally set tariffs for most nations while striking deals selectively. As this column goes to press, India is in the second category and might see an interim agreement announced soon. Pakistan is hopeful of securing a trade deal, while Bangladesh faces a 35 percent tariff rate.
Yet these developments should not distract India’s elite from grappling with the deeper forces shaping Trump’s worldview—a set of radical ideas that are shaking the international system to its foundations. In two seminal essays in Foreign Affairs, Michael Beckley of Tufts University offers a perspective on this tumultuous American change. He points to the potential rise of the United States as a “rogue superpower.”
Beckley first advanced his argument during Trump’s first term, when the President openly challenged core principles of U.S. foreign policy: economic globalization, security alliances, and openness to immigration. Back then, Trump’s inexperience and the constraints imposed by the Washington establishment tempered many of his instincts.
In his second term, however, Trump is less constrained and commands near-total dominance over a political system the American founding fathers designed precisely to prevent the concentration of power in a single individual or party. One might argue that Trump’s defiance of this constitutional structure is a passing phase. But for now, he has a free hand to pursue policies on three of his core priorities: trade, international security, and immigration—heralding the “age of American unilateralism.”
Crucially, Beckley contends that Trump is not the source of this new American orientation but rather a catalyst for a deeper transformation rooted in structural features of the U.S.’s position in the world. Since the end of World War II, U.S. foreign policy has been framed as a choice between global leadership and isolationism. America’s unilateralism has also been reinforced by the political coalition behind Trump’s rise. The MAGA movement argues that globalization has hollowed out American manufacturing and betrayed working people. It opposes security alliances and views them as a burden. It resents Washington’s “endless wars” fought in the name of global leadership. For this coalition, defending America’s borders against illegal immigration takes priority over defending distant allies.
This transformation in U.S. foreign policy presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While the U.S. may be retreating from its traditional role as a global leader, it is also creating space for other nations to assert their influence. India, with its growing economic and strategic capabilities, is well-positioned to step into this void. However, this will require a nuanced understanding of the shifting global dynamics and a willingness to engage with a U.S. that is increasingly unpredictable.
In conclusion, the changing landscape of U.S. foreign policy under Trump necessitates a reevaluation of India’s approach to its international relations. By recognizing the underlying forces shaping U.S. actions and adapting accordingly, India can navigate this new era of global politics effectively.